Very interesting report from Caris & Co. Internet analyst Sandeep Aggarwal today. Although Aggarwal mainly follows the big publicly traded Web stocks — your Googles, Amazons and eBays of the world — he obviously keeps track of the top private firms as well.
Aggarwal and his team put out an exhaustive list of 400 top private Internet companies Monday morning. They ranked their top 15 by looking at “traction, business momentum, global impact, brand, and revenue generation potential.” Here’s the list. As you’ll see, there are some surprises.
- Facebook
- Craigslist
- Wikipedia
- Mozilla
- Groupon
- Zynga
- LivingSocial
- Twitter
- LinkedIn
- Gilt
- Hulu
- Kayak
- Travelocity
- Pandora
- Skype
The fact that Craigslist, Wikipedia and Mozilla are “hotter” than Zynga, Groupon and Twitter was somewhat shocking given how much press the latter three get. But it goes to show that being boring isn’t a bad thing if it means you are actually generating solid sales.
It was also very interesting that LivingSocial, which seems to lag Groupon badly in the “buzz” department, was ranked so closely to its Chicago rival. I was also surprised that Foursquare did not make the cut.
Aggarwal and his team didn’t stop with this list though. They also ranked a top 20 list of IPO candidates. Facebook obviously topped that list too.
But Craigslist, Wikipedia and Mozilla were not among the top 20. Aggarwal told me in a phone interview that’s only because he thinks those companies are unlikely to ever go public based on comments made by their founders and top executives.
Groupon was number 2 on the IPO list. Twitter was # 6, behind LivingSocial, LinkedIn and Zynga. Of course, several private Web companies have already filed to go public, including LinkedIn, Pandora, Skype and Kayak.
Now, everyone is wondering just how well some of these companies will do and if there is a new bubble brewing in Silicon Valley.
For what it’s worth, research firm GreenCrest Capital is trying to dial down the expectations a bit. In a report it e-mailed me Monday, analysts said it estimated a market value of about $11 billion for Groupon and $7 billion for Twitter.
While that’s still extremely rich, it’s considerably lower than the $25 billion some others estimate Groupon could be worth and $10 billion targets for Twitter. Hopefully though, all the speculation will soon be put to rest.
It’s not yet clear when LinkedIn or Pandora will graduate from private companies to publicly traded stocks. But once they do, their success (or failure) will go a long way toward determining whether Facebook, Groupon, Zynga and Twitter really deserve those eye-popping 11-figure valuations they are fetching in the shadowy private market world. — Paul
Consumers might buy an album using Facebook Credits virtual currency, and then stream it within the social network, with an update appearing on their friends’ walls every time they play a track. 
